CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-07-27T06:36:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-07-27T06:36ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32245/-1
CME Note: Asymmetric halo CME visible towards the NW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and towards the NE in STEREO A COR2. The source is an M3.1 flare from AR 3762 with dimming/EUV wave towards the N/NW starting at 2024-07-27T05:42Z best seen in GOES SUVI 195 and 284 (SDO/AIA has an eclipse shortly after the event starts). The eruption is also visible south of disk center as seen in available EUV imagery. Arrival signature: a likely combined shock of this CME and up to 3 preceding CMEs characterized by a sharp increase in B_total from ~5nT to ~13 and eventually to 15nT, fast fluctuation of magnetic field components, a jump in solar wind speed from 330 to 480 km/s and an increase in density from 6 to above 10 p/cc.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-07-29T23:20Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-29T20:36Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 803.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v2 u_r = 866.197 Acceleration: -1.72490 % Compiled module: CALDAT. Duration in seconds: 223200.33 Duration in days: 2.5833371 ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: -1.72 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 481.2 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 29/07/2024 Time: 20:36 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 34.70 hour(s)
Difference: 2.73 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2024-07-28T12:38Z
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